First Corse Bayesian

This book provides a compact self-contained introduction to the theory and application of Bayesian statistical methods. The book is accessible to readers having a basic familiarity with probability, yet allows more advanced readers to quickly grasp the principles underlying Bayesian theory and methods. The examples and computer code allow the reader to understand and implement basic Bayesian data analyses using standard statistical models and to extend the standard models to specialized data analysis situations.

The current textbook has been written as a help to medical / health professionals and students for the study of modern Bayesian statistics, where posterior and prior odds have been replaced with posterior and prior likelihood distributions. Why may likelihood distributions better than normal distributions estimate uncertainties of statistical test results? Nobody knows for sure, and the use of likelihood distributions instead of normal distributions for the purpose has only just begun, but already everybody is trying and using them.
SPSS statistical software version 25 (2017) has started to provide a combined module entitled Bayesian Statistics including almost all of the modern Bayesian tests (Bayesian t-tests, analysis of variance (anova), linear regression, crosstabs etc.).

Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS – the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world – and R – an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.

This workshop series was initiated by Myron Tribus and Edwin T. Jaynes, and organised for the first time by C.Ray Smith and Walter T. Grandy in 1981 at the University in Wyoming. Since then, tremendous progress has been made and the number of publications based on Bayesian methods is impressive

Design Research uses scientific methods to evaluate designs and build design theories. This book starts with recognizable questions in Design Research, such as A/B testing, how users learn to operate a device and why computer-generated faces are eerie. Using a broad range of examples, efficient research designs are presented together with statistical models and many visualizations.

Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics.