Black Swan Premium English

Economies are deeply complex systems. The global marketplace—even national, state and local economies—involve many economic actors behaving in rational and irrational ways, sustaining a dizzying array of interconnected activity. Because of the number of participants involved in this global exchange, the unpredictability of their actions, and the sheer variety of possible actions, some degree of economic uncertainty is inevitable.

It is becoming increasingly clear that our modern technological society is vulnerable to the impacts of severe solar storms, radiation, particle and geomagnetic disturbances. However, the potential severity of these extreme solar events and their probability of occurring are unknown. What can we expect from the Sun? What could the most severe solar particle storms look like?