Teaching Probability

According to Leo Breiman (1968), probability theory has a right and a left hand. The right hand refers to rigorous mathematics, and the left hand refers to 'proba­ bilistic thinking'. The combination of these two aspects makes probability theory one of the most exciting fields in mathematics. One can study probability as a purely mathematical enterprise, but even when you do that, all the concepts that arise do have a meaning on the intuitive level. For instance, we have to define what we mean exactly by independent events as a mathematical concept, but clearly, we all know that when we flip a coin twice, the event that the first gives heads is independent of the event that the second gives tails. Why have I written this book? I have been teaching probability for more than fifteen years now, and decided to do something with this experience. There are already many introductory texts about probability, and there had better be a good reason to write a new one. I will try to explain my reasons now.

This course, along with Part 2, provide the necessary skills and knowledge to pass SOA Exam P and CAS Exam 1

Life is full of probabilities. Every time you choose something to eat, you deal with probable effects on your health. Every time you drive your car, probability gives a small but measurable chance that you will have an accident. Every time you buy a stock, play poker, or make plans based on a weather forecast, you are consigning your fate to probability.

This book presents a collection of selected papers that represent the current variety of research on the teaching and learning of probability. The respective chapters address a diverse range of theoretical, empirical and practical aspects underpinning the teaching and learning of probability, curricular issues, probabilistic reasoning, misconceptions and biases, as well as their pedagogical implications.