Introduction to Probability Models

This book introduces and studies a number of stochastic models of subsistence, communication, social evolution and political transition that will allow the reader to grasp the role of uncertainty as a fundamental property of our irreversible world. At the same time, it aims to bring about a more interdisciplinary and quantitative approach across very diverse fields of research in the humanities and social sciences.

The first seven chapters use R for probability simulation and computation, including random number generation, numerical and Monte Carlo integration, and finding limiting distributions of Markov Chains with both discrete and continuous states. Applications include coverage probabilities of binomial confidence intervals, estimation of disease prevalence from screening tests, parallel redundancy for improved reliability of systems, and various kinds of genetic modeling.

The theory of probability and mathematical statistics is becoming an indispensable discipline in many branches of science and engineering. This is caused by increasing significance of various uncertainties affecting performance of complex technological systems. Fundamental concepts and procedures used in analysis of these systems are often based on the theory of probability and mathematical statistics.

Probability and Statistics are studied by most science students, usually as a second- or third-year course. Many current texts in the area are just cookbooks and, as a result, students do not know why they perform the methods they are taught, or why the methods work. The strength of this book is that it readdresses these shortcomings; by using examples, often from real-life and using real data, the authors can show how the fundamentals of probabilistic and statistical theories arise intuitively. It provides a tried and tested, self-contained course, that can also be used for self-study.