Wisdom of Crowds

We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one.

"Diary of a Very Bad Year is a rarity: a book on modern finance that's both extraordinarily thoughtful and enormously entertaining." — James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds