Hidden Markov Chains

The general theory of stochastic processes and the more specialized theory of Markov processes evolved enormously in the second half of the last century. In parallel, the theory of controlled Markov chains (or Markov decision processes) was being pioneered by control engineers and operations researchers. Researchers in Markov processes and controlled Markov chains have been, for a long time, aware of the synergies between these two subject areas.

This book extends the local central limit theorem to Markov chains whose state spaces and transition probabilities are allowed to change in time. Such chains are used to model Markovian systems depending on external time-dependent parameters. The book develops a new general theory of local limit theorems for additive functionals of Markov chains, in the regimes of local, moderate, and large deviations, and provides nearly optimal conditions for the classical expansions, as well as asymptotic corrections when these conditions fail. Applications include local limit theorems for independent but not identically distributed random variables, Markov chains in random environments, and time-dependent perturbations of homogeneous Markov chains.

In this book, the author begins with the elementary theory of Markov chains and very progressively brings the reader to the more advanced topics. He gives a useful review of probability that makes the book self-contained, and provides an appendix with detailed proofs of all the prerequisites from calculus, algebra, and number theory. A number of carefully chosen problems of varying difficulty are proposed at the close of each chapter, and the mathematics are slowly and carefully developed, in order to make self-study easier. The author treats the classic topics of Markov chain theory, both in discrete time and continuous time, as well as the connected topics such as finite Gibbs fields, nonhomogeneous Markov chains, discrete- time regenerative processes, Monte Carlo simulation, simulated annealing, and queuing theory. The result is an up-to-date textbook on stochastic processes. Students and researchers in operations research and electrical engineering, as well as in physics and biology, will find it very accessible and relevant.

In this book, the author begins with the elementary theory of Markov chains and very progressively brings the reader to the more advanced topics. He gives a useful review of probability that makes the book self-contained, and provides an appendix with detailed proofs of all the prerequisites from calculus, algebra, and number theory. A number of carefully chosen problems of varying difficulty are proposed at the close of each chapter, and the mathematics are slowly and carefully developed, in order to make self-study easier. The author treats the classic topics of Markov chain theory, both in discrete time and continuous time, as well as the connected topics such as finite Gibbs fields, nonhomogeneous Markov chains, discrete- time regenerative processes, Monte Carlo simulation, simulated annealing, and queuing theory. The result is an up-to-date textbook on stochastic processes. Students and researchers in operations research and electrical engineering, as well as in physics and biology, will find it very accessible and relevant.

Kronecker products are used to define the underlying Markov chain (MC) in various modeling formalisms, including compositional Markovian models, hierarchical Markovian models, and stochastic process algebras.