Probability Theory And Inference

In May of 1973 we organized an international research colloquium on foundations of probability, statistics, and statistical theories of science at the University of Western Ontario. During the past four decades there have been striking formal advances in our understanding of logic, semantics and algebraic structure in probabilistic and statistical theories. These advances, which include the development of the relations between semantics and metamathematics, between logics and algebras and the algebraic-geometrical foundations of statistical theories (especially in the sciences), have led to striking new insights into the formal and conceptual structure of probability and statistical theory and their scientific applications in the form of scientific theory.

University-level course in probability theory and statistics appropriate for economists and social scientists

This book focuses exclusively on the domain of parametric inference and that, too, from a reader’s perspective, i.e., covering only point estimation of parameter(s). It covers those topics in parametric inference which need clarity of exposure to students, researchers, and teachers alike; mere statements of theorems and proofs may not always reveal the inner beauty and significance of some aspects of inference. To ensure clarity, the book discusses the following topics at an advanced level—(1) sequential (unbiased) point estimation of ‘p’ and its functions; generalization to trinomial and tetranomial populations; (2) some aspects of the use of additional resources in finite population inference; (3) the concept of sufficiency vis-à-vis the notion of sufficient experiments and comparison of experiments; (4) estimation of the size of a finite population with special features; and (5) unbiased estimation of reliability in exponential samples and other settings. This book provides a platform for thought-provoking, creative, and challenging discussions on a variety of topics in statistical estimation theory, it is also ideal for research methodology course for statistics research scholars, and for clarification of basic ideas in topics discussed at basic/advanced levels.

This book focuses exclusively on the domain of parametric inference and that, too, from a reader’s perspective, i.e., covering only point estimation of parameter(s). It covers those topics in parametric inference which need clarity of exposure to students, researchers, and teachers alike; mere statements of theorems and proofs may not always reveal the inner beauty and significance of some aspects of inference. To ensure clarity, the book discusses the following topics at an advanced level—(1) sequential (unbiased) point estimation of ‘p’ and its functions; generalization to trinomial and tetranomial populations; (2) some aspects of the use of additional resources in finite population inference; (3) the concept of sufficiency vis-à-vis the notion of sufficient experiments and comparison of experiments; (4) estimation of the size of a finite population with special features; and (5) unbiased estimation of reliability in exponential samples and other settings. This book provides a platform for thought-provoking, creative, and challenging discussions on a variety of topics in statistical estimation theory, it is also ideal for research methodology course for statistics research scholars, and for clarification of basic ideas in topics discussed at basic/advanced levels.

Some years ago when I. assembled a number of general articles and lectures on probability and statistics, their publication (Essays in Probability and Statistics, Methuen, London, 1962) received a some­ what better reception than I had been led to expect of such a miscellany. I am consequently tempted to risk publishing this second collection, the title I have given it (taken from the first lecture) seeming to me to indicate a coherence in my articles which my publishers might otherwise be inclined to query. As in the first collection, the articles are reprinted chronologically, usually without comment. One exception is the third, not previously published and differing from the original spoken version both slightly where indicated in the text and by the addition of an Appendix. I apologize for the inevitable limitations due to date, and also for any occasional repetition of the discussion (e.g. on Bayesian methods in statistical inference).

The three parts of this book on survey methodology combine an introduction to basic sampling theory, engaging presentation of topics that reflect current research trends, and informed discussion of the problems commonly encountered in survey practice.