Time Series For Economics And Finance

Books on time series models deal mainly with models based on Box-Jenkins methodology which is generally represented by autoregressive integrated moving average models or some nonlinear extensions of these models, such as generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. Statistical inference for these models is well developed and commonly used in practical applications, due also to statistical packages containing time series analysis parts. The present book is based on regression models used for time series. These models are used not only for modeling mean values of observed time se­ ries, but also for modeling their covariance functions which are often given parametrically. Thus for a given finite length observation of a time series we can write the regression model in which the mean value vectors depend on regression parameters and the covariance matrices of the observation depend on variance-covariance parameters. Both these dependences can be linear or nonlinear. The aim of this book is to give an unified approach to the solution of statistical problems for such time series models, and mainly to problems of the estimation of unknown parameters of models and to problems of the prediction of time series modeled by regression models.

Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory accessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and nonstationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area.
The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introductions are also given to cointegration and to nonlinear, continuous-time and long-memory models.
The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

Hands-On Time Series with Python: Accessing, Manipulating, Visualizing Data, Master Advanced Techniques & Build Projects

Yearly global mean temperature and ocean levels, daily share prices, and the signals transmitted back to Earth by the Voyager space craft are all examples of sequential observations over time known as time series. This book gives you a step-by-step introduction to analysing time series using the open source software R. Each time series model is motivated with practical applications, and is defined in mathematical notation.