Bayesian

Winner of the 2004 DeGroot Prize

This paperback edition, a reprint of the 2001 edition, is a graduate-level textbook that introduces Bayesian statistics and decision theory. It covers both the basic ideas of statistical theory, and also some of the more modern and advanced topics of Bayesian statistics such as complete class theorems, the Stein effect, Bayesian model choice, hierarchical and empirical Bayes modeling, Monte Carlo integration including Gibbs sampling, and other MCMC techniques. It was awarded the 2004 DeGroot Prize by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) for setting "a new standard for modern textbooks dealing with Bayesian methods, especially those using MCMC techniques, and that it is a worthy successor to DeGroot's and Berger's earlier texts".

Learn the concepts and practical side of using the Bayesian approach to estimate likely event outcomes.

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry.

Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis.

The past decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of Bayesian methods in marketing due, in part, to computational and modelling breakthroughs, making its implementation ideal for many marketing problems. Bayesian analyses can now be conducted over a wide range of marketing problems, from new product introduction to pricing, and with a wide variety of different data sources.

This book introduces recent developments in Bayesian inference, and covers a variety of topics including robust Bayesian estimation, solving inverse problems via Bayesian theories, hierarchical Bayesian inference, and its applications for scattering experiments. The book will stimulate more extensive research on Bayesian fronts to include theories, methods, computational algorithms and applications in various fields such as data science, AI, machine learning, and causality analysis.

The current textbook has been written as a help to medical / health professionals and students for the study of modern Bayesian statistics, where posterior and prior odds have been replaced with posterior and prior likelihood distributions. Why may likelihood distributions better than normal distributions estimate uncertainties of statistical test results? Nobody knows for sure, and the use of likelihood distributions instead of normal distributions for the purpose has only just begun, but already everybody is trying and using them.
SPSS statistical software version 25 (2017) has started to provide a combined module entitled Bayesian Statistics including almost all of the modern Bayesian tests (Bayesian t-tests, analysis of variance (anova), linear regression, crosstabs etc.).

Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS – the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world – and R – an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.