What Are The Chances? Probability Made Clear

Life is full of probabilities. Every time you choose something to eat, you deal with probable effects on your health. Every time you drive your car, probability gives a small but measurable chance that you will have an accident. Every time you buy a stock, play poker, or make plans based on a weather forecast, you are consigning your fate to probability.

Who was the greatest baseball hitter of all time? How likely is it that a poll is correct? Is it smart to buy last year's highest-performing stock? Which hospital has the best outcome for a given procedure? When is it a good idea to buy a product's extended warranty? These questions all involve the interpretation of statistics, as do a surprising number of other mysteries, including: Is the "hot hand" among sports players real? How can you tell if Shakespeare is the probable author of a newly discovered poem? What is a guilt-free way to get someone to admit to cheating? And, how does a tax assessor calculate the market value of a house?