Edward Lucas

Change the World by Changing Yourself

Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, government subsidy schemes and regulations. The doctrine of rational expectations uses standard economic methods to explain how those expectations are formed. It assumes that people form expectations in an optimal way, given their limited information and all of the uncertainties of the environment. This work collects the papers that have made significant contributions to formulating the idea of rational expectations. Selections range from John F. Muthâ ™s classic essays of the early sixties to unpublished research of Muth, Gregory Chow, Robert E. Lucas, and Lars P. Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent. Most of the papers deal with the connections between observed economic behavior and the evaluation of alternative economic policies.

In October of 1934, "Lux Radio Theater" debuted in New York on NBC's Blue radio network. Presenting audio versions of popular Broadway plays, the show failed to garner an audience and soon ran out of material…