Time Series For Economics And Finance

This volume constitutes the proceedings of the Hong Kong International Workshop on Statistics in Finance, held at the University of Hong Kong in July 1999. Topics covered include heavy-tailed and nonlinear continuous-time ARMA models for financial time series, and forecast evaluation.

Risk models are models of uncertainty, engineered for some purposes. They are “educated guesses and hypotheses” assessed and valued in terms of well-defined future states and their consequences. They are engineered to predict, to manage countable and accountable futures and to provide a frame of reference within which we may believe that “uncertainty is tamed”.